Rumors of the Death of Tablet PC Greatly Exaggerated.

I get really steamed at guys like Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, freelance writer and editor of Channel Zone newsletter and eWeek's Linux and Open Source Site. And no, it's not just the hyphenated surname, although that irritates me too. It's the masquerading as a journalist that does it.

In his recent article entitled "Goodbye and Good Riddance to the Tablet PC," Mr. Vaughan-Nichols reports that Microsoft is giving up on the idea of the Tablet PC for the mass market and then he expresses his joy at the impending passing of the Tablet PC. Ignoring for the moment his blatant bias, I submit that he is simply wrong.

Mind you, I'm not talking about a simple disagreement with Mr. Vaughan-Nichols' opinion or really even the conclusion he reached. And I'm certainly not talking about some sort of deep philosophical or religious disagreement like, say, cats vs. dogs, paper vs. platic, lid up vs. lid down or over-the-roll vs. under-the-roll. No, I'm talking about blatant fallacies -- gaping holes -- in the very premise upon which he bases his reasoning.

I'm afraid that in his haste to eulogize the Tablet PC Mr. Vaughan-Nichols (a) confuses Tablet PC the operating system with Tablet PC the hardware platform, and (b) assumes that the demise of a dedicated "mobile" or "tablet" version of Windows equates to the demise of the tablet platform.

The foundation of Mr. Vaughan-Nichols' reasoning is the premise that Tablet PCs are on the decline. In support of this he cites an eWeek article that says no such thing. As I read it, the article simply says that Microsoft may have goofed in thinking that the slate version of Tablet PCs would win out over traditional notebooks when it now appears that notebook-like convertible Tablet PCs are the more popular platform. Does it say that the Tablet PC as a platform is doomed or even "on the decline" as Mr. Vaughan-Nichols implies? Absolutely not. Just that a different variety of Tablet PC is the one winning out.

Then the article says that the need for a dedicated edition of the Windows operating system just for Tablet PCs may no longer be necessary. In the light most favorable to Mr. Vaughan-Nichols I suppose this could be stretched to mean that the Tablet PC operating system is on the way out, but only because it may be subsumed by the truly mainstream Windows XP Professional. That is akin to saying that faxing, PC remote control and ZIP compression are "on the decline" because the Windows operating system now performs those functions natively. Unique software dedicated to those functions may not be necessary any longer, but those functions of the PC are certainly still in use.

To me this doesn't say that Tablet PCs are dying, as Mr. Vaughan-Nichols would like to exuberantly conclude, but rather just the opposite -- that they are on their way to becoming so mainstream that the Tablet PC edition of Windows ought to just be absorbed into the standard Windows operating system. In other words, Microsoft is questioning whether it makes sense to maintain two separate releases of the Windows operating system, and the obvious answer is no.

I have to say that I am not and have never been a Microsoft evangelist, or even a fan. On the other hand I have to admit that Microsoft is building some pretty darned good software these days and is doing a lot of things right. Clearly Mr. Vaughan-Nichols cannot see through whatever drives his anti-Microsoft or anti-Tablet PC bias to admit that Microsoft may be on to something with the Tablet PC. I can't detect from his article why he is so biased, except for perhaps that he has had a bad experience with its recognition of his handwriting. I find that interesting because my handwriting is far from textbook and have been awed by its accuracy. Regardless, if Mr. Vaughan-Nichols doesn't like the Tablet, he doesn't have to use one. But please just give us the facts and let the rest of us make up our own minds without the slant, okay?

Now, to Mr. Vaughan-Nichols credit, if it is in fact true that Tablet PC (both slate and 'convertible' models) sales are actually declining then I might agree with him. If Microsoft concedes that the Tablet PC platform appeals only to niche vertical markets, then they might as well give up on it altogether because it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it remains a niche product for narrow vertical markets (e.g. medical), then the hardware can never achieve mass-market pricing and thus will never achieve mass-market acceptance.

Follow-up:
See this recent posting by Evan Feldman, one of the founders of Microsoft's Tablet PC group, in his new blog, Evan's Weblog of Tech and Life.